FEATURE: 2018 Tony Award Predictions

As we get closer to the 72nd Annual Tony Awards (June 10th on CBS starting at 8pm ET), here’s my take on what and who “should win” versus what and who “will win”, along with some short thoughts and analysis.  Disagree?  Comment below or shoot me an email!  Show names hyperlink to my reviews and where to buy tickets.

Best Play
"The Children"
"Farinelli and the King"
"Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two"
"Junk"
"Latin History for Morons"

SHOULD WIN: “The Children”
WILL WIN: “Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two”

Unfortunately, there is no Tony Award for best play script (vs. production).  “Harry Potter” clearly offered the best new play production of the season and hence will win, but “The Children” is a better play on every other mark.

Best Musical
"The Band's Visit"
"Frozen"
"Mean Girls"
"SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical"

SHOULD WIN: “The Band’s Visit”
WILL WIN: “The Band’s Visit” 

I can now safely say that “The Band’s Visit” was my favorite musical of 2016 (Off-Broadway), 2017, and 2018 (so far).  An upset here would be the biggest Tony surprise in recent history.

Best Revival of a Play
"Angels in America"
"Three Tall Women"
"The Iceman Cometh"
"Lobby Hero"
"Travesties"

SHOULD WIN: “Angels in America”
WILL WIN: “Angels in America”

It’s arguably the best play of the last 25 years, and this first rate revival from the National Theatre in London is as good as it gets.  That said, both “Three Tall Women” and “Travesties” are stunning productions of equally as intelligent works—be prepared for a possible upset.

Best Revival of a Musical
"Carousel"
"My Fair Lady"
"Once On This Island" 

SHOULD WIN: “Carousel”
WILL WIN: “Carousel”

All three revivals this season were quite excellent, but in the final analysis, Jack O’Brien and Justin Peck’s haunting production of the “greatest musical of the 20th century” (according to TIME Magazine) simply soars above its competition.

Best Director of a Play
Marianne Elliott, "Angels in America"
Joe Mantello, "Three Tall Women"
Patrick Marber, "Travesties"
John Tiffany, "Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two"
George C. Wolfe, "The Iceman Cometh"

SHOULD WIN: Marianne Elliott, "Angels in America"
WILL WIN: John Tiffany, "Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two"

Ms. Elliott did a masterful job taming the beast that is “Angels in America”, extracting a suite of outstanding performances and creating a production that feels new.  That said, Mr. Tiffany will likely win for his expert shepherding of the season’s other behemoth.

Best Director of a Musical
Michael Arden, "Once On This Island"
David Cromer, "The Band's Visit"
Tina Landau, "SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical"
Casey Nicholaw, "Mean Girls"
Bartlett Sher, "My Fair Lady"

SHOULD WIN: Tina Landau, "SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical"
WILL WIN: David Cromer, "The Band's Visit"

This category contains an embarrassment of riches.  Ms. Landau spent a decade crafting “SpongeBob” for the stage; as I said in my review, there are a million ways it could have gone wrong—instead it was the greatest surprise of the season, and that’s thanks to the strength of her creative vision.  A win for Mr. Cromer, though, would be equally as well-deserved.  “The Band’s Visit” is a paragon of restraint.  It takes an outstanding director to shape what is clearly the best musical of this season (and probably the decade).

Best Choreography
Christopher Gattelli, "My Fair Lady"
Christopher Gattelli, "SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical"
Steven Hoggett, "Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two"
Casey Nicholaw, "Mean Girls"
Justin Peck, "Carousel"

SHOULD WIN: Justin Peck, "Carousel"
WILL WIN: Justin Peck, "Carousel"

Mr. Peck’s energetic and newly re-imagined dances for “Carousel” represent some of the finest choreography ever seen on Broadway, more than earning his equal billing beside director Jack O’Brien.  This one is a lock.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play
Andrew Garfield, "Angels in America"
Tom Hollander, "Travesties"
Jamie Parker, "Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two"
Mark Rylance, "Farinelli and The King"
Denzel Washington, "The Iceman Cometh"

SHOULD WIN: Tom Hollander, "Travesties"
WILL WIN: Andrew Garfield, "Angels in America"

While I adore Mr. Garfield’s work (I still think about his performance in 2012’s “Death of a Salesman”), I was disappointed by his Prior Walter in “Angels in America” for reasons explained in my review.  I’d give the Tony to Mr. Hollander, who also repeats his Olivier-nominated performance from London, and is mesmerizing. 

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play
Glenda Jackson, "Three Tall Women"
Condola Rashad, "Saint Joan"
Lauren Ridloff, "Children of a Lesser God"
Amy Schumer, "Meteor Shower"

SHOULD WIN: Glenda Jackson, "Three Tall Women"
WILL WIN: Glenda Jackson, "Three Tall Women"

All hail, Ms. Jackson!  She’s been absent from the New York stage since 1988, taking some 25 years off from her acting career to serve in the British Parliament.  Now thankfully back where she belongs (to borrow a phrase), I was simply transfixed by her performance in “Three Tall Women”.  No competition here.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play
Anthony Boyle, "Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two"
Michael Cera, "Lobby Hero"
Brian Tyree Henry, "Lobby Hero"
Nathan Lane, "Angels in America"
David Morse, "The Iceman Cometh"

SHOULD WIN: Anthony Boyle, "Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two"
WILL WIN: Nathan Lane, "Angels in America"

You would be hard pressed to find a bigger fan of Mr. Lane than me, but his Roy Cohn was my least favorite part of “Angels in America” for reasons explained in my review.  There is no official “star” in “Harry Potter”, but Mr. Boyle offers a smashing New York stage debut worthy of recognition.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play
Susan Brown, "Angels in America"
Noma Dumezweni, "Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two"
Deborah Findlay, "The Children"
Denise Gough, "Angels in America"
Laurie Metcalf, "Three Tall Women"

SHOULD WIN: Noma Dumezweni, "Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two"
WILL WIN: Denise Gough, "Angels in America"

As Harper Pitt, Ms. Gough (sounds like cough) successfully tackles one of the most difficult characters in “Angels in America” (it’s really hard to play depressed in a compelling way); I loved her performance, but I would give the Tony to Ms. Dumezweni, who brings great depth and heart to her trailblazing performance as Hermoine.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
Lauren Ambrose, "My Fair Lady"
Hailey Kilgore, "Once On This Island"
LaChanze, "Summer: The Donna Summer Musical"
Katrina Lenk, "The Band's Visit"
Taylor Louderman, "Mean Girls"
Jessie Mueller, "Carousel"

SHOULD WIN: Katrina Lenk, "The Band's Visit"
WILL WIN: Katrina Lenk, "The Band's Visit"

I would watch Ms. Lenk do anything—and she pretty much can do anything; her performance in “The Band’s Visit” is peerless.  Give her two Tonys.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical
Harry Hadden-Paton, "My Fair Lady"
Joshua Henry, "Carousel"
Tony Shalhoub, "The Band's Visit"
Ethan Slater, "SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical"

SHOULD WIN: Ethan Slater, "SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical"
WILL WIN: Joshua Henry, "Carousel"

This is the hardest category for me this season, because I believe both Mr. Slater and Mr. Henry should win; my money is on Mr. Henry, though.  If you haven’t seen “Carousel” yet, his “Soliloquy” alone is worth the price of admission.  As for Mr. Slater, “SpongeBob” falls squarely upon his shoulders (and they are very strong and limber shoulders).  No actor in recent years has seemed as irreplaceable  and necessary to the success of a musical.  Ben Brantley compared his performance to Joel Grey’s “Emcee” and Carol Channing’s “Dolly”.  They both won Tonys.  I rest my case.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical
Norbert Leo Butz, "My Fair Lady"
Alexander Gemignani, "Carousel"
Grey Henson, "Mean Girls"
Gavin Lee, "SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical"
Ari'el Stachel, "The Band's Visit"

SHOULD WIN: Ari'el Stachel, "The Band's Visit"
WILL WIN: Ari'el Stachel, "The Band's Visit"

Since Alex Newell was not nominated for “Once On This Island”, in a complete 180° turn from the last category, I would be fine with any of these five actors winning as they each gave stand-out performances in their respective productions.  I think voters will have a soft spot for "The Band's Visit", and Mr. Stachel’s Broadway debut performance.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical
Ariana DeBose, "Summer: The Donna Summer Musical"
Renée Fleming, "Carousel"
Lindsay Mendez, "Carousel"
Ashley Park, "Mean Girls"
Diana Rigg, "My Fair Lady"

SHOULD WIN: Lindsay Mendez, "Carousel"
WILL WIN: Lindsay Mendez, "Carousel"

Ms. Mendez is the kind of performer you fall in love with.  Even with slightly pared back material, her zesty Carrie Pipperidge is a highlight of this “Carousel”.

Best Book of a Musical
"The Band's Visit", Itamar Moses
"Frozen", Jennifer Lee
"Mean Girls", Tina Fey
"SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical", Kyle Jarrow

SHOULD WIN: "Mean Girls", Tina Fey
WILL WIN: "Mean Girls", Tina Fey

Mr. Moses works wonders with very few words, and Mr. Jarrow does a fine job putting a cartoon on stage, but this award is Ms. Fey’s to lose, as she’s expertly adapted her screenplay into a musical, adhering to form, honoring the jokes we all know, and adding new ones equally as funny.  I’d argue that her musical is better than her film, and that is not easy to do, especially with material as beloved as “Mean Girls”. 

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
"Angels in America", Adrian Sutton
"The Band's Visit", Music & Lyrics: David Yazbek
"Frozen", Music & Lyrics: Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
"Mean Girls", Music: Jeff Richmond, Lyrics: Nell Benjamin
"SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical", Music & Lyrics: Yolanda Adams, Steven Tyler & Joe Perry of Aerosmith, Sara Bareilles, Jonathan Coulton, Alex Ebert of Edward Sharpe & The Magnetic Zeros, The Flaming Lips, Lady Antebellum, Cyndi Lauper & Rob Hyman, John Legend, Panic! at the Disco, Plain White T's, They Might Be Giants, T.I., and Domani & Lil'C

SHOULD WIN: "The Band's Visit", Music & Lyrics: David Yazbek
WILL WIN: "The Band's Visit", Music & Lyrics: David Yazbek

Finally!  For years now, Mr. Yazbek has been the most unrecognized and underappreciated composer/lyricist working in musical theatre, consistently churning out scores that are disarmingly smart and really catchy (see: “The Full Monty”, “Dirty Rotten Scoundrels”, and “Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown”).  He’s been compared to Frank Loesser, but I think the better compliment is to compare him to David Yazbek, for he’s earned his own place beside the greats.  Look out for next season’s “Tootsie”.

Best Orchestrations
John Clancy, "Mean Girls"
Tom Kitt, "SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical"
Annmarie Milazzo & Michael Starobin, "Once On This Island"
Jamshied Sharifi, "The Band's Visit"
Jonathan Tunick, "Carousel"

SHOULD WIN: Tom Kitt, "SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical"
WILL WIN: Jamshied Sharifi, "The Band's Visit"

Mr. Kitt took new songs from 14 disparate artists and managed to fashion them together into one cohesive score.  That’s impressive.  But I think Mr. Sharifi’s excellent work bringing an authentic Arab sound to Broadway with "The Band's Visit" will win.

Turning to the design awards, I’ll offer only my “should win” opinions.

Best Scenic Design of a Play
Miriam Buether, "Three Tall Women"
Jonathan Fensom, "Farinelli and The King"
Christine Jones, "Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two"
Santo Loquasto, "The Iceman Cometh"
Ian MacNeil and Edward Pierce, "Angels in America"

SHOULD WIN: Christine Jones, "Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two"

Despite its record-breaking budget, the environment of “Harry Potter” is deceptively simple; Ms. Jones works wonders with a couple moving staircases.

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Dane Laffrey, "Once On This Island"
Scott Pask, "The Band's Visit"
Scott Pask, Finn Ross & Adam Young, "Mean Girls"
Michael Yeargan,"My Fair Lady"
David Zinn, "SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical"

SHOULD WIN: David Zinn, "SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical"

Mr. Zinn’s inventive designs are so essential to the production that “SpongeBob” just doesn’t seem to work as well when performed in other settings (e.g. in a TV studio); read about them here and in my review. 

Best Costume Design of a Play
Jonathan Fensom, "Farinelli and The King"
Nicky Gillibrand, "Angels in America"
Katrina Lindsay, "Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two"
Ann Roth, "Three Tall Women"
Ann Roth, "The Iceman Cometh"

SHOULD WIN: Katrina Lindsay, "Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two"

One word: capes.

Best Costume Design of a Musical
Gregg Barnes, "Mean Girls"
Clint Ramos, "Once On This Island"
Ann Roth, "Carousel"
David Zinn, "SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical"
Catherine Zuber, "My Fair Lady"

SHOULD WIN: David Zinn, "SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical"

The detail work of Mr. Zinn’s costumes is staggering; read about them here. 

Best Lighting Design of a Play
Neil Austin, "Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two"
Paule Constable, "Angels in America"
Jules Fisher + Peggy Eisenhauer, "The Iceman Cometh"
Paul Russell, "Farinelli and The King"
Ben Stanton, "Junk"

SHOULD WIN: Neil Austin, "Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two"

Mr. Austin’s lighting design is an essential component of the mind-blowing illusions and magic that happen on stage at the Lyric Theatre. 

Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Kevin Adams, "SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical"
Jules Fisher + Peggy Eisenhauer, "Once On This Island"
Donald Holder, "My Fair Lady"
Brian MacDevitt, "Carousel"
Tyler Micoleau, "The Band's Visit"

SHOULD WIN: Tyler Micoleau, "The Band's Visit"

In a musical of moments, that is a masterwork of subtlety, Mr. Micoleau’s lighting perfectly punctuates the passage of time over the course of one evening in the desert, aided at times by a sly use of projections (not a category...yet).

Best Sound Design of a Play
Adam Cork, "Travesties"
Ian Dickinson for Autograph, "Angels in America"
Gareth Fry, "Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two"
Tom Gibbons, "1984"
Dan Moses Schreier, "The Iceman Cometh"

SHOULD WIN: Gareth Fry, "Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two" 

Sound design is often overlooked (heck, the category was just restored after being cut the past couple years), but it is a vital part of the “Harry Potter” experience. 

Best Sound Design of a Musical
Kai Harada, "The Band's Visit"
Peter Hylenski, "Once On This Island"
Scott Lehrer, "Carousel"
Brian Ronan, "Mean Girls"
Walter Trarbach and Mike Dobson, "SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical"

SHOULD WIN: Walter Trarbach and Mike Dobson, "SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical"

This might be cheating, but Mike Dobson is the foley artist (I repeat: foley artist!) who sits house left and creates the constant stream of sound effects that accompany all the action on stage at “SpongeBob”—one of the smartest and most effective decisions made in putting this cartoon on stage. 

My predictions in total:

"The Band's Visit" – 7 wins from 11 nominations
"Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two" – 6 wins from 10 nominations
"Angels in America" – 4 wins from 11 nominations
"Carousel" – 4 wins from 11 nominations
"SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical" – 3 wins from 12 nominations
"Mean Girls" – 1 win from 12 nominations
"Three Tall Women" – 1 win from 6 nominations